The St Clair Region Conservation Authority is expecting some minor flooding as the snow continues to melt and rain moves into the area.

Here’s the conservation authority’s flooding outlook:

Message: Moderate rainfall, loss of snowpack, chance of minor flooding

•             35 to 50 mm accumulated rainfall over the next 5 days

•             Warm temperatures, unfrozen ground

•             Snowmelt and increased runoff, elevated water levels and chance of minor flooding

Weather Situation:

A Texas low followed by a second low pressure system laden with moisture from the Gulf are forecast to bring above-freezing temperatures and heavy rainfall in two waves over the next five days.

Today (Friday), rain showers of approximately 2 mm are forecast to begin this afternoon and continue overnight with a further 1 mm forecast for tomorrow (Saturday). On Sunday, 20 to 30 mm of rainfall is forecast across the watershed with the potential for higher amounts in localized areas.

Trace amounts of rainfall will continue on Monday followed by an additional 5 to 10 mm of rain on Tuesday. Over the next five days, accumulated rainfall amounts of 35 to 50 mm are possible, with the majority of it falling on Sunday and Tuesday.

Daytime temperatures are expected to remain above freezing over the next five days, with overnight temperatures also remaining mild and/or bordering the freezing mark; 5°C is forecast for today with a daytime high of 13°C for tomorrow (Saturday) and 7°C on Sunday. Snowpack depths of around 10 cm will degrade with the warm temperatures and rainfall.

Risks:

Above-freezing temperatures and heavy rainfall will quickly degrade the snowpack and lead to increased runoff into drains and watercourses. Ponding is likely to occur in low-lying areas as soils become saturated, as well as roads if drains are covered or blocked by remaining snow and ice. Water levels are likely to respond quickly to the increased runoff and will be elevated and may lead to minor flooding into natural floodplain areas.

Individuals are reminded to avoid watercourses and flooded areas due to dangerous conditions, slippery banks and cold, swift moving water. Children and pets should be kept away from the water.

The Conservation Authority continues to monitor watershed conditions and will issue advisories to municipalities and media should flood issues arise. Municipal emergency response staff and road superintendents should monitor local conditions closely.