Cathy Dobson/The Independent

Local labour analysts are choosing their words carefully as they describe a challenging employment picture for Sarnia-Lambton.

“It’s not dismal. It could be worse,” said John Pilat, general manager of the Sarnia Construction Association. “We are doing considerably better than in (the) 2008 (recession), which was an extremely slow year.” 

Sarnia-Lambton’s  latest unemployment rate is 8.3 per cent, the highest in the southwestern Ontario region and nearly three per cent higher than a year earlier.

“There are fewer jobs posted, fewer folks working and a slower job market,” said Mikelle Bryson-Campbell of the Sarnia-Lambton Workforce Development Board.

Her group analyzes Statistics Canada figures which have one unemployment rate for the region.
The Workforce Development Board is able to extrapolate an unemployment rate that applies to Sarnia-Lambton only.

The latest numbers reflect the employment scenario in October and suggest Sarnia-Lambton is showing signs of “recession-like conditions,” Bryson-Campbell said.

“We’ve been hearing lots of talk about recession.  I’m not saying we are necessarily in one but we are experiencing a higher unemployment rate than anywhere else across the economic region,” she said.

The retail sector is among the hardest hit, said Bryson-Campbell.  Even as the holiday season approached, fewer employers looked for casual or part-time workers this year.

“I’m not certain why but there are fewer jobs being posted on our job boards,” said Bryson-Campbell.  A survey of 32 online job boards shows about 700 new job openings in Sarnia-Lambton in early fall.  That fell to 500 by October.

“So we’re seeing jobs getting filled, but not more jobs being posted,” Bryson-Campbell said.

Sarnia-Lambton’s 8.3 per cent unemployment in October compares with a 7.7 per cent rate in Chatham-Kent and a 7.5 per cent rate in Windsor-Essex. 

Since construction of the NOVA Chemicals plant in St. Clair Township wrapped up in 2023, there have been no big construction projects announced locally, said Pilat whose organization represents about 6,000 local tradespeople.

The recent “pausing” of construction of a much-anticipated Crown Royal Diageo plant in St. Clair has created more uncertainty on the local job front.

The number of trades currently working parallels the number working prior to the NOVA construction, Pilat said.

About 2,000 tradespeople are working in the region on typical maintenance jobs, he said.  Another 1,400 are working at shutdowns, while a large unspecified number are finding work out-of-town in places that include Windsor, Ottawa, the Bruce nuclear plant, and Toronto.

“There was a lot more local shutdown activity last year,” Pilat said.  It won’t be until the fall of 2026 when more shutdowns are expected to boost employment numbers, he added.

“There’s just not a lot of industrial investment at this time and no construction news in particular.”
And the local industrial sector will also shrinking in 2025. INEOS Styrolutions announced last year it would mothball its plant in Sarnia after a series of benzene releases which made some residents of the Aamjiwnaang First Nation sick. About 80 people will lose their jobs.