Heather Wright/The Independent

“The biggest killer of opportunity is uncertainty.”

That from Matthew Slotwinski, the head of the Sarnia-Lambton Economic Partnership.
He’s been closely watching the threats coming from south of the border and the reaction to the tariff talk from local industries and investors.

US President Donald Trump has vowed to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, perhaps as early as Feb. 1. That would make Canadian goods less attractive to US consumers, slowing sales.
And that could cause a loss of 500,000 jobs in Ontario alone, according to Premier Doug Ford.

But Slotwinski says even six months ago, the prospect of a Trump election was slowing the wheels of progress in Lambton.

“Even before the threat of tariffs, the political uncertainty that had existed over the last six months had meant various projects didn’t move forward, either within the community or across Ontario,” he says. Recently Diageo announced it would put its $250 million Crown Royal plant on hold in St. Clair Township.

Then Trump was elected and started talking tariffs.

“Because of the uncertainty that we’re seeing linked to the tariff threats, there are projects that are either on hold, aren’t moving forward, or where they may have been considering Ontario locations like Sarnia-Lambton, for example, they may be looking, to a greater degree at the United States,” added Slotwinski.

That is the ultimate goal of the tariffs; Trump, analysts say, wants America to meet its own needs. He recently invited leaders at the World Economic Forum to come do business in America.
“But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff.”

Slotwinski says those tariffs would have a deep impact in Lambton county, particularly the agriculture and petrochemical industries.

“Our economy as a whole is extremely integrated with the American economy,” he says.
Slotwinski says there is also a significant movement of goods across the border on any given day’ in the petrochemical industry.”

But agriculture, particularly greenhouse vegetable growers, could have a big problem.

“We’ve heard a tremendous voice from the agricultural community across Ontario right now. Of our agricultural production, about 60 per cent of it are exports to the United States.

“If we look at the greenhouse industry across Canada, over 99 per cent of the product that’s grown in Canada is ultimately exported to the United States. We have several greenhouse operations here in Sarnia-Lambton.

“Everything from the cash crops that are grown locally through to the livestock, it’s crossing the border in tremendous volumes. And I don’t think that there’s anybody who wouldn’t be impacted if these tariffs were ultimately to move forward.”

Drew Spoelstra, the president of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture is also watching the tariff talk.

“Our conversations have been about, certainly protecting and maintaining what we have, ensuring that we have an open trading relationship that we’ve enjoyed since the early 90s,” he said in an interview with The Independent while he was at the American Farm Bureau convention talking about the prospect of tariffs in agriculture.

“I think obviously there are some targets that have been set out for the federal government to meet, whether it be around border security or some of the other issues that they (the US) have with contraband.”

Trump initially said border security and drugs going into the US from Canada were the main reason for the tariffs. The federal government has invested $1.3 billion in border security in December. The US President continues to threaten the 25 per cent tariff.

If the US does impose tariffs on agriculture, Spoelstra said there would be “challenges in the cost of production.

“We import a lot of things in our value chain that we use to produce food, whether it be fertilizer or veterinary supplies or equipment, those types of things. So there’s certainly going to be added cost to Ontario farmers if this is to be implemented,” he said.

Spoelstra is also concerned about investment in processing in the US instead of Ontario.

“Food and beverage manufacturers that might want to look to Ontario to invest…with what’s being proposed in the US, they may be looking at alternative options other than Ontario, and we certainly don’t want to see that,” he said.

“We’ve got a huge shortage in processing capacity (in) beef and pork and milk, grains, those types of things. And certainly, we want to attract that business to Ontario. We don’t want to see it go other places in the world.”

Spoelstra is also concerned the threats of tariffs will slow investment on Ontario farms. “We don’t know what’s going to be coming, and when it might be coming, and if it might be coming at all. And farming is a long term game. You need to make plans and put things in motion, whether it be in livestock or grain or fruit and vegetable production…and when we have this uncertain future, it certainly creates challenges for people moving ahead with their businesses.”

Slotwinski says the tariff threat has created uncertainty everywhere.

“The reality is no one really knows what’s actually going to happen with any certainty at this point in time, and that has a large impact on businesses ability to plan and forward function.

“It has the potential to have significant impacts on our ability to attract new investment and job creation opportunities into the Sarnia Lambton area. I’ll note, I think it’s going to be real interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks, few months, because it is difficult for businesses to make major investment decisions.”

Slotwinski says businesses needs to hear how the provincial and federal governments will respond. But that, too, is uncertain.

“The political uncertainty was initially associated with what would be the outcome of the United States election. Of course, that’s shifted at this point to what actions are actually going to be implemented through the new United States government, but at the same time, the potential for major change within both the Ontario and Canadian government, it leads to uncertainty as well.

“All of those are contributing factors when it comes to companies ability to make sound investment decisions.”