Cathy Dobson/The Independent

Fewer people took advantage of advance polls heading up to Thursday’s provincial election.

Only 6.59 per cent of eligible voters in Sarnia-Lambton voted in advance trending closely with the 6.1 per cent advance balloting turnout for all of Ontario, according to Elections Ontario.

That means 5,806 of Sarnia-Lambton’s 88,055 eligible registered voters cast their ballots at advance polls from Thursday to Saturday. The figures don’t include special ballots cast at the Sarnia-Lambton Elections Ontario office on London Road. 

That’s down significantly from the last provincial election in June 2022, where just shy of 10 per cent of eligible voters voted early.

The decidedly low advance voter turnout could be a harbinger of what’s to come as many experts agree low voter turnout generally signifies a win for the incumbent.

Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs called a snap election in late January, more than a year early and took heavy criticism for it. Ford said he needed a strong mandate to fight the threat of American tariffs.

But, if the advance polls are any indication, an early winter election with only one month to campaign puts Sarnia-Lambton incumbent PC MPP Bob Bailey at an advantage.

Sarnia-Lambton has a history of low voter turnout for provincial elections. Last time around, in 2022, only 46 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot.

Now, low participation in advance polling here and across Ontario suggests Thursday’s election could repeat that pattern.

Two third-party data platform which make riding projections called SmartVoting.ca and Votewell.ca indicated this week that local voters will overwhelmingly return long time PC incumbent Bob Bailey to Queen’s Park with 61 per cent of the vote. 

The sites also predict the NDP represented in Sarnia-Lambton by Candace Young has 17 per cent support while the Liberal’s Rachel Willsie has 14 per cent of the local vote with two days before the official vote.

The lead for the Conservatives in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is even wider, according to SmartVoting.ca and Votewell.ca.

Both sites say incumbent Steve Pinsonneault of the Ontario PCs has 67 per cent support in his riding. The Liberals, represented by Lucan-Biddulph Mayor Cathy Burghardt Jesson, are next with 16 per cent of the vote.
The Lambton-Kent-Middlesex vote is almost a carbon copy of the byelection in May 2024 with four of the five candidates in the byelection are running again. That byelection drew only 30.3 per cent of the ridings 91,655 voters. 

However, there’s always a chance election day could buck the trend and surprise the pollsters.  There’s still ample opportunity to vote, says Sarnia-Lambton returning officer Ryan Williams.

On election day, 39 polls will be available across the Sarnia-Lambton riding and 52 in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, as well as an additional polls in apartment buildings, long term care and nursing homes.
Voting takes place from 9 am to 9 pm Thursday.

Voters can find out their assigned location at elections.on.ca if they haven’t already received their voter information cards in the mail. Voting cards are not necessary on election day if photo identification is presented.